Long before Malcolm Gladwell’s extraordinary best-selling book The Tipping Point, there was Geoffrey Moore’s Crossing the Chasm, published almost twenty years ago, and his follow-up book, Inside the Tornado. Moore talked about the flash point at which a technology product progresses from early adoption to mass adoption.

There can be little doubt that social media has “crossed the chasm.” Social media surely meets Gladwell’s tipping point criteria as well: “Ideas and products and messages and behaviors spread just like viruses do.”

So with mass adoption under its belt, where is social media headed next year? The end-of-year predictions are already starting. Rather than depend on casual prognosticators, however, I like to follow the thinking of people who analyze trends and offer perceptive observations grounded in reality.

That’s why I think David Armano’s blog for Harvard Business Publishing is worthy of mention. Armano is a founder of Dachis Group, a consultancy based in Austin, TX specializing in social business. Its clients include AXA, BP, Philips, and Coca-Cola, so I have a feeling Armano knows what he’s talking about.

Armano identifies six social media trends for 2010, but I want to focus on the implications of his commentary rather than the specifics. One underlying theme of Armano’s blog seems to be that social media’s mass adoption comes with consequences, both to individuals and businesses. Individuals overwhelmed with multiple messages from multiple sources may bring a new meaning to the term “anti-social,” because, as Armano says, they need to “filter out the clutter.” But at the same time, Armano believes businesses will be impacted by social media’s popularity: “…employees will seek to feed their social media addictions on their mobile devices.” What used to be a coffee break may turn into a “social media break.”

“There are relatively few big companies that have scaled social initiatives,” says Armano, so in 2010, there could be more companies looking “to uncover cost savings or serve customers more effectively through leveraging social technology.” At the same time, companies will probably need to extend their email and Internet policies to include social media. “From how to conduct yourself as an employee to what’s considered competition, it’s likely that you’ll see something formalized about how the company views social media and your participation in it,” says Armano.

Notice the beginnings of a complex situation emerging when it comes to social media — not unlike what has occurred with email and cell phones. People can’t get enough of social media, but it may come to a point where there’s a backlash and it needs to be controlled. Businesses want to do more with social media and do it better, but they are likely to put rules into place to prevent its abuse.

Maybe in 2010, people will begin to think about social media in a new way: Can’t live with it, can’t live without it.

More here:
Social Media: At the Tipping Point