It’s rare that one day of shopping has the ability to impact Wall Street but financial forecasters are focused on this year’s Black Friday’s numbers as a gauge of how close to recovery our economy really is.  That $10.66 billion dollars in estimated retail sales only represents a scant 0.5% growth is a worrying sign.  Thankfully, online sales are the highlight.

According to Reuters and ShopperTrak, this year’s Black Friday sales underperformed.  Comparatively, in 2008, sales increased 3% year-over-year during a holiday season at the apex of one of the worst financial climates in US history. This makes this year’s 0.5 % growth year-over-year worrisome.

Consumers said they were planning to spend nearly 8% less on average, or about $343 per person, over the Thanksgiving Weekend, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Surprisingly department stores trumped discount retailers with 49.4% of shoppers visiting at least one. Discount retailers reached 43.2% of holiday shoppers with outlet stores grabbing 7.8%.

“In an economy like this one, every retailer wants to be a discounter,” said Tracy Mullin, NRF President and CEO. “Department stores have done an admirable job touting both low prices and good quality, which are important requirements for holiday shoppers on a budget.”

Online fared much better with a healthy $595 million dollars in estimated retail sales, according to comScore, which represents an 11 % increase year over year.

According to the NRF, over one-fourth of Americans shopping during the Thanksgiving Weekend (28.5%) were shopping online. There was little surprise in the online leaders with Amazon, Wal-Mart, Apple, Target, and Best Buy representing the top 5 most visited retail sites.

“Black Friday, better known as a shopping bonanza in brick-and-mortar retail stores, is increasingly becoming one of the landmark days in the online holiday shopping world,” said comScore chairman, Gian Fulgoni. “The $595 million in online spending this Black Friday represents the second heaviest online spending day of the season-to-date and a double-digit increase from last year.”

The relative strength of online sales supports data from Compete which forecasts a 14% increase in consumers who will  spend at least some of their holiday budget online this year. At the start of the year advertising and sales online were down overall. The success of online sales  indicates that advertisers who invested their budget online and drove the growth in online advertising during Q3 of 2009, as reported by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and PricewaterhouseCoopers, certainly got their money’s worth.

For online retailers the big question is whether tomorrow’s Cyber Monday totals will be equally positive. For traditional retailers the question is whether shoppers, burdened in an economy with an unemployment rate above 10%, will continue to spend throughout the holiday season.

Read more:
Online Sales Bright Spot in Lackluster Black Friday